Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 1

By | October 17, 2019

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019


000
WTNT21 KNHC 171456
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019
1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO
CLEARWATER FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO CLEARWATER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  95.7W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  95.7W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  95.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.7N  94.2W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 25.8N  91.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 28.5N  88.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.9N  85.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...190NE 150SE  60SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.5N  77.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 37.5N  70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 38.0N  66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N  95.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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