000 WTNT21 KNHC 211453 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023 1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 75.9W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 75.9W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 76.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 30.0N 75.5W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...210NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.7N 75.4W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...270NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 33.2N 75.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...380NE 90SE 130SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.1N 76.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...410NE 120SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 37.3N 76.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...210NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.8N 76.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 40.4N 71.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 75.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN