Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Forecast Discussion Number 6

By | November 18, 2023

WTNT42 KNHC 180239

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
1000 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

The broad disturbance has failed to become better organized today. 
The associated convection remains displaced well to the east of the 
surface trough axis by strong southwesterly shear. The earlier 
aircraft reconnaissance data showed the disturbance was only 
producing peak winds of 25-30 kt. Given its lack of a well-defined 
surface center, poor convective organization, and the continued 
hostile environmental conditions it faces, this system is no longer 
expected to become a tropical cyclone. Additionally, the risk of 
sustained tropical-storm-force winds on land has greatly diminished, 
and all tropical storm watches have been discontinued. Therefore, 
this will be the final NHC advisory on this system.

The remnants of this disturbance are expected to accelerate 
northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough and merge with a frontal 
system over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean later this weekend. 
Although tropical cyclone formation is not expected, there is high 
confidence that heavy rainfall and flooding will remain a serious 
threat across southeastern Cuba and Hispaniola through Sunday. 
Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts 
of 14 inches, are expected across portions of these areas, which is 
likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service. Additional 
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header 
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 


1. Heavy rains from this disturbance will impact portions of 
southeastern Cuba and southern Hispaniola through Sunday. This 
rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides 
in areas of higher terrain. Lighter amounts across Jamaica, the 
southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands may lead to 
flash flooding in urban areas.


INIT  18/0300Z 20.0N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Reinhart

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