000 AXNT20 KNHC 130353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat May 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 01N38W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the equator to 08N between 10W and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between subtropical high pressure in the Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh E- SE winds across the Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in the NE Gulf, and 5- 7 ft elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural fires is covering portions of the SW Gulf. The latest SAB analysis indicated a medium concentration of smoke over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Weather observations along the coast of Mexico also indicate the presence of haze. For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the eastern Gulf waters during the next several days producing mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds E of 90W and moderate to fresh return flow W of 90W. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds over the western Gulf tonight into Sat with seas building to 8 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat night. Then, winds are forecast to veer to the E across most of the basin by late Sun into Mon as high pressure settles over the northern Gulf. Slight to moderate seas will prevail, reaching 7 or 8 ft in the NW Gulf through Sun under a persisting SE wind flow. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between a subtropical high-pressure ridge and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh E winds across the majority of the basin, with a few exceptions. E- NE winds are strong in the south-central Caribbean, particularly of the coast of Colombia. Strong winds are also observed in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 6-9 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 6-7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed north of 18N. Smoke from agricultural fires is covering portions of the NW Gulf, and has been most dense across the Gulf of Honduras this evening. The latest SAB analysis indicated a medium concentration of smoke over the Gulf of Honduras region. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, tonight and Sat, then mainly fresh winds will prevail. Fresh to strong E winds are also forecast in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Sat night with seas building to near 8 ft. Fresh NE to E winds may briefly develop in the Windward Passage tonight. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades are forecast basin-wide Mon through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N50W to 24N62W where a stationary boundary continues to the SE Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the stationary boundary, particularly between the Bahamas and Cuba, including the Old Bahama Channel and Florida Straits. North of the frontal boundaries, anticyclonic winds are moderate to fresh with 5-7 ft seas. South of the boundaries, winds are gentle to moderate from the SE-E with 4-5 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient between high pressure near the Azores and lower pressure over north Africa is supporting fresh NE winds and 6-10 ft seas. In the tropics south of 20N, winds are generally moderate from the NE with 5-6 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N49W to 24N62W where it becomes stationary to the SE Bahamas and north-central Cuba. The front will remain nearly stationary on Sat and lift N on Sun while gradually dissipating. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas follow the front. High pressure building over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front will support the continuation of moderate to fresh E winds across the waters E of the Bahamas tonight into Sat. The high pressure will shift SE toward the NE corner of the forecast area on Sun diminishing the winds to gentle to moderate speeds. A cold front could reach the north waters late on Mon or Mon night. $$ Flynn
