000
AXNT20 KNHC 291036
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Apr 29 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.
…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…
The monsoon trough axis enters the far eastern Atlantic through
the coast of southern Mauritania near 17N16W, and continues
south-southwestward to near 107N20W, where it transitions to the
ITCZ to 02N24W to the Equator at 30W and to south of the Equator
to the coast of Brazil near 05S36W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen south of 04N 35W-40W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 02N to 06N between 21W-35W, and from
the Equator to 05N between 40W-45W.
GULF OF AMERICA…
High pressure stretches from offshore the Mid-Atlantic states
southward into the Gulf. Mostly dry and stable conditions remain
in place over the basin, except in the far northwest section where
upper-level clouds moving east-northeast are seen. Moderate to
fresh east to southeast winds are across the basin, except for
fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the eastern and central
Bay of Campeche near the diurnal thermal trough. Seas are in the
range of 3 to 6 ft per latest buoy observations and in overnight
altimeter satellite data passes.
For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to dominate
the basin through the end of the week supporting gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds and moderate seas across the
northeastern and north-central Gulf. Winds will pulse to fresh to
strong speeds each evening over the eastern and central Bay of
Campeche through the forecast period due to local effects related
to a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh winds
and moderate seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida at night
through Wed night. Southeast winds and seas will increase over the
western and central Gulf through Wed night before diminishing Thu
afternoon.
CARIBBEAN SEA…
A broad deep-layer trough is over the western Atlantic reaching
southward to the north-central Caribbean. Divergent southwesterly
flow aloft ahead of the trough continues to support scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the southwest Caribbean coastal
waters from northwest Colombia to northern Costa Rica. Farther
east, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is
producing scattered passing showers across much of the
northeastern Caribbean and adjacent islands east of 70W. Drier
conditions are noted over the northwestern Caribbean, under the
influence of the northern flow aloft west of the upper trough. At
the surface, the wind flow pattern is being driven by relatively
high pressure that is present north of the area and that is
centered offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast, and the usual low
pressure found off Colombia. This pattern is supporting mostly
gentle to moderate easterly flow across the basin along with seas
of 4 to 6 ft, except for lower seas of 2 to 4 ft south of 15N
between 64W and 68W and seas of 3 to 5 ft over the west-central
section. Fresh to strong northeast winds are in the lee of Cuba,
with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Fresh northeast winds are in the Windward
Passage along with seas of 5 to 6 ft.
For the forecast, the high pressure north of the basin combined with
the Colombian low will support pulsing fresh to strong winds at
night in the Windward Passage and south of Cuba, through at least
Thu night, with mainly moderate trades elsewhere.
ATLANTIC OCEAN…
A cold front is analyzed from 31N57W to 26N70W to 26N78W. To
its southeast, a trough persists along a location from just
north of Puerto Rico, north-northeastward to near 27N62W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are east of the trough to near
47W, and also north of 27N between 52W and the cold front.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along the front between 60W
and 62W and 73W and 75W.
Fresh northeast to east winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft seas are
north of the front. Gentle to moderate northeast winds along
with seas of 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere to the west of
the surface trough. Gentle to moderate southeast to south
winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail between the trough and 50W.
East of 45W, the synoptic pattern is dominated by strong high
pressure of 1030 mb centered well north of the area, with its
related gradient supporting fresh trades and 6 to 8 ft seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
reach from near 31N56W to 26N63W to the central Bahamas by early
this afternoon. This front is forecast to stall on Wed from near
31N53W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Fresh northeast winds and
moderate to rough seas will follow the front. Building high
pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the forecast
waters west of 65W for remainder of the week. A cold front may
approach the southeastern U.S. coast late on Sat.
$$
Aguirre