NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

By | April 27, 2022

000
AXNT20 KNHC 270400
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Apr 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from 
31N41W to 20N60W to 22N70W. Gale to strong gale force SW winds are
observed ahead of the front as well as westerly gales behind the 
front. These winds will decrease to sub-gale by Wednesday 
afternoon. Seas in the area range from 12-17 ft. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 01N24W. The ITCZ extends from 01N24W
to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 01N to 05N between the African continent and 25W.
Isolated weak convection is observed along the length of the ITCZ, 
extending up to 180 nm south of the boundary.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to far NE 
Mexico. Convection has begun to wane tonight, with isolated weak 
showers lingering along the frontal boundary. Moderate winds
prevail over the basin, with fresh NE winds in the eastern Bay of
Campeche and fresh easterlies in the southern Florida Straits.
Seas are 4-6 ft across the basin, except for 2-4 ft in the NE
Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will dig a bit more southward 
tonight, then stall across the central Gulf through Wed then 
dissipate. Winds will pulse to fresh and strong offshore north and
west of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba this evening. High
pressure will return toward the weekend. Hazy conditions remain 
possible over the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche this evening due to 
smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant moisture and divergence aloft is producing scattered
showers across the SW Caribbean Sea, primarily S of 13N as well 
as within 60 nm of the Nicaraguan coast. Winds are generally 
moderate to fresh from the NE in the eastern Caribbean with 
moderate easterlies in the western basin. Fresh to strong NE winds
are expected in the Windward Passage and offshore Colombia. Seas 
are 3-6 ft across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean 
Sea will support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in 
the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and near 
the coast of Colombia during the night through Wed night. 
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail, 
except gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Periodic showers and 
thunderstorms are expected in the SW Caribbean this evening. 
Northerly swell will move into Atlantic waters and through 
Atlantic passages tonight through the end of the week. A surge of 
wind will accompany a trough that will move through the eastern to
central Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warnings currently in effect for the central Atlantic.

High pressure centered near 30N75W dominates the western Atlantic.
A cold front is approaching the U.S. east coast tonight, bringing
scattered moderate convection to the coastal waters. In the 
central Atlantic, the cold front described in the Special Features
section is producing a large are of strong winds that dominates 
the central Atlantic. Seas in excess of 8 ft are observed between
30W-70W, extending as far south as 20N. Expect very rough seas in
areas of near gale and gale force winds closer to the frontal
boundary. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh northerly winds are 
observed along the African coast with moderate conditions 
elsewhere. Seas in the area are 4-8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front from 21N55W to 20N60W 
to 23N71W will continue southeastward, with increasing winds and 
seas building in its wake, gradually diminishing and subsiding 
Wed. The remnants of the front in the form of a NE to SW trough 
may move into the waters south of 22N and east of 70W this 
weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure will prevail west of 70W through
tonight. A cold front will move offshore of N Florida Wed 
morning, slowly sagging south while weakening through the end of 
the week.

$$
Flynn

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