NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

By | April 6, 2024

AXNT20 KNHC 060904

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 13N16W and extends SW to 01S31W. The ITCZ continues from
01S31W to 04N38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N
to 08N between 10W and 26W.


High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a  
1019 mb high pressure center near 27N87W. Light to gentle winds
are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds
are elsewhere E of 90W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted W of
90W. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the north central Gulf, and
3-5 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will shift 
northeastward and inland through the weekend. This will support 
mostly fresh E to SE winds over the western and central Gulf 
through tonight before diminishing Sun. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse off the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula tonight and
Sun night. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop over most of 
Gulf Mon and Mon night, and continue through early Wed, ahead of 
an approaching cold front. Expect the next cold front to move into
the western Gulf on Wed. 


Fresh to strong winds prevail over the Caribbean waters S of 15N
between 65W and 76W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas
are in the 6-8 ft range over the south central Caribbean and 4-6
ft elsewhere S of 18N and E of 80W. Seas of 4-5 ft are noted W of
85W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the 
coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela at night through Sun night, 
then will expand in areal coverage across most of the central 
Caribbean Mon through Wed, as high pressure builds N of the area. 
Wind will reach near gale- force at night off of Colombia Mon 
night through Wed night. Expect strong NE winds to develop in the 
Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola Mon through Wed.


A cold front extends from 31N60W to eastern Cuba. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted N of 28N and W of the front to 77W.
Elsewhere W of the front, light to gentle winds are noted.
Moderate to fresh winds are found N of 25N within 90 nm E of the
front. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are found N of 28N between 50W and 75W.
Farther east, a 1020 mb high pressure area is centered near 
28N44W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high 
center. Moderate to fresh trade winds, and seas of 8-9 ft, are 
south of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas of 8-12 ft are found N of 22N between 15W and 48W.
Elsewhere, seas of 5-7 ft are noted. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken as it 
moves across the E and SE forecast waters Sun through Mon. A 
reinforcing cold front will quickly move across the area from late
tonight through Sun, followed by fresh to strong W to NW winds N 
of 27N. High pressure will move off the coast of South Carolina 
early next week, with the associated ridge expected to support 
moderate to fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the 
Caribbean approaches through Tue night, becoming fresh to strong 


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