NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

By | May 13, 2023

AXNT20 KNHC 130353

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
0605 UTC Sat May 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0350 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W 
to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 01N38W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from the equator to 08N between 
10W and 35W.


The gradient between subtropical high pressure in the Atlantic 
and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh E-
SE winds across the Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in the NE Gulf, and 5-
7 ft elsewhere. 

Smoke from agricultural fires is covering portions of the SW 
Gulf. The latest SAB analysis indicated a medium concentration 
of smoke over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. 
Weather observations along the coast of Mexico also indicate the 
presence of haze.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the 
eastern Gulf waters during the next several days producing 
mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds E of 90W and moderate to 
fresh return flow W of 90W. Winds are forecast to increase to 
fresh to strong speeds over the western Gulf tonight into Sat 
with seas building to 8 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds will 
pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night 
through Sat night. Then, winds are forecast to veer to the E 
across most of the basin by late Sun into Mon as high pressure 
settles over the northern Gulf.
Slight to moderate seas will prevail, reaching 7 or 8 ft in the 
NW Gulf through Sun under a persisting SE wind flow. 


The gradient between a subtropical high-pressure ridge and lower 
pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh E 
winds across the majority of the basin, with a few exceptions. E-
NE winds are strong in the south-central Caribbean, particularly 
of the coast of Colombia. Strong winds are also observed in the 
Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 6-9 ft in the south-central 
Caribbean, 6-7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. 
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed north of 

Smoke from agricultural fires is covering portions of the NW 
Gulf, and has been most dense across the Gulf of Honduras this 
evening. The latest SAB analysis indicated a medium 
concentration of smoke over the Gulf of Honduras region.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to 
rough seas are expected in the south-central Caribbean, 
including the Gulf of Venezuela, tonight and Sat, then mainly 
fresh winds will prevail. Fresh to strong E winds are also 
forecast in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Sat night with 
seas building to near 8 ft. Fresh NE to E winds may briefly 
develop in the Windward Passage tonight. Otherwise, gentle to 
moderate trades are forecast basin-wide Mon through Wed. 


A cold front extends from 31N50W to 24N62W where a stationary 
boundary continues to the SE Bahamas.  Scattered moderate 
convection is observed along the stationary boundary, 
particularly between the Bahamas and Cuba, including the Old 
Bahama Channel and Florida Straits. North of the frontal 
boundaries, anticyclonic winds are moderate to fresh with 5-7 ft 
seas. South of the boundaries, winds are gentle to moderate from 
the SE-E with 4-5 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient 
between high pressure near the Azores and lower pressure over 
north Africa is supporting fresh NE winds and 6-10 ft seas. In 
the tropics south of 20N, winds are generally moderate from the 
NE with 5-6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N49W 
to 24N62W where it becomes stationary to the SE Bahamas and 
north-central Cuba. The front will remain nearly stationary on 
Sat and lift N on Sun while gradually dissipating. Moderate to 
locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas follow the front. 
High pressure building over the western Atlantic in the wake of 
the front will support the continuation of moderate to fresh E 
winds across the waters E of the Bahamas tonight into Sat. The 
high pressure will shift SE toward the NE corner of the forecast 
area on Sun diminishing the winds to gentle to moderate speeds. 
A cold front could reach the north waters late on Mon or Mon 


Leave a Reply