000 WTNT31 KNHC 211459 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 ...LOW PRESSURE AREA EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 75.9W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cape Fear, North Carolina, northward to Fenwick Island, Delaware, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Surf City, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia, and the for the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear NC to Fenwick Island DE * Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City NC to Chincoteague VA * Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 75.9 West. The system is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast by late Friday and continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to approach the coast of North Carolina within the warning area Friday night and early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it approaches the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether the system become a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT!.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Surf City NC to Chincoteague VA...2-4 ft Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point...2-4 ft Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds...2-4 ft South Santee River SC to Surf City NC 1-3 ft Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in North Carolina on Friday, and spread northward Friday night and Saturday. RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts of 6 inches, across the eastern Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey, Friday through Sunday. This rainfall may produce localized urban and small stream flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown