332 WTNT31 KNHC 221451 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 ...STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 75.6W ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning for Ocracoke Inlet to Duck, North Carolina, the Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach, and portions of the western Albemarle Sound. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina * Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 75.6 West. The system is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north to north-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the low will approach the coast of North Carolina tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before landfall, and the low is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 41025 at Diamond Shoals, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust of 51 mph (83 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft Delaware Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are reaching portions of the North Carolina coast within the warning area and will spread northward through Saturday. RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia from today into Saturday. Across remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from later today into Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through Saturday for portions of the mid-Atlantic Coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart