Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 5

By | October 18, 2019

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

000
WTNT21 KNHC 181446
TCMAT1
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019
1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  90.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  19 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  90.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N  91.2W
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 27.8N  88.0W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE  40SW  50NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.9N  85.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  45SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE  40SW  40NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.2N  82.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.4N  78.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 37.0N  71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 37.0N  69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N  90.0W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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