Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Forecast Advisory Number 1

ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042024
1500 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N  76.6W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N  76.6W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  75.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.7N  78.3W...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.3N  80.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.1N  82.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.2N  83.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.2N  82.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 30.7N  81.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 32.0N  80.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW   0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 33.6N  77.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  60SW  40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N  76.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


NNNN