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Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Local Statement Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Miami FL AL042024
1112 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024
This product covers South Florida
**Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Forms Over Cuba**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Coastal Collier
County and Mainland Monroe
- A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Far South Miami-Dade
County
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Collier
County and Mainland Monroe
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Far South Miami-Dade
County
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 410 miles southeast of Miami FL or about 490 miles
southeast of Naples FL
- 20.9N 76.6W
- Storm Intensity 30 mph
- Movement West-northwest or 290 degrees at 16 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is near eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas this
morning. As Four moves west-northwestward across the straits of
Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, tropical storm development is
forecast to occur off the Gulf coast of Florida. A Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for coastal Collier and mainland Monroe Counties
along with the Gulf waters. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for
far south Miami-Dade County.
The following are the primary hazards of concern with Four:
* Rainfall - The majority of the rainfall associated with the system
is forecast to fall Saturday through Sunday night. Rainfall will range
between 2 to 4 inches across most of the area. Locally higher amounts
of 5 + inches are certainly possible and will depend on how this
system tracks and evolves through the weekend. A Flood Watch may
become necessary for portions of southern Florida.
* Wind - The highest probabilities for sustained tropical storm force
winds will be along the Gulf coast of Southwest Florida including
Collier and mainland Monroe Counties and adjacent Gulf waters. All of
South Florida could see strong winds gusts with squalls.
* Coastal Flooding/Surge - Higher than usual tides due to the
combination of surge from Four and the upcoming new moon could lead to
coastal flooding of 1 to 3 feet along coastal Collier and mainland
Monroe Counties from Saturday evening through Sunday. Other vulnerable
coastal areas of southern Florida could also experience minor coastal
flooding, especially around the times of high tide.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across South Florida. Potential impacts include:
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
rescues.
- Ditches and canals may quickly become swollen with swift
currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.
* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the coastal Collier and mainland Monroe counties. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
surge water covers the road.
- Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.
Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.
* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
coastal Collier county and mainland Monroe counties. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.
If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.
Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Miami FL around 5PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.
$$
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