Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

By | August 2, 2024

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FONT14 KNHC 021456
PWSAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042024               
1500 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR WAS LOCATED  
NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                     

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

MACON GA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

DOTHAN AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

ALBANY GA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   6(13)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   5(13)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)   5(19)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   6(19)   3(22)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)

KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  30(32)   3(35)   2(37)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
KINGS BAY GA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   1(14)   1(15)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  30(33)   2(35)   2(37)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   1(19)   1(20)

GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   1(24)   X(24)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)   1(14)

THE VILLAGES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)   X(20)   X(20)
THE VILLAGES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   X(12)   X(12)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  14(21)   X(21)   1(22)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  14(21)   X(21)   1(22)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   1(16)   1(17)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)   X(11)   1(12)

FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)

MARATHON FL    34  X   3( 3)  16(19)   2(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)

KEY WEST FL    34  X   2( 2)  19(21)   3(24)   X(24)   1(25)   X(25)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NAPLES FL      34  X   X( X)  10(10)  15(25)   3(28)   X(28)   X(28)
NAPLES FL      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  28(31)   9(40)   X(40)   X(40)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)  20(43)   1(44)   X(44)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  33(44)   1(45)   X(45)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   1(12)

APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   2(16)   X(16)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   1(17)   X(17)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)

GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

CIENFUEGOS     34  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

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