000 FONT14 KNHC 021456 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 1500 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 5(19) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) 3(22) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 3(35) 2(37) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) 1(15) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 2(35) 2(37) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) 1(20) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) 1(14) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) X(20) X(20) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) X(21) 1(22) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) X(21) 1(22) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 1(16) 1(17) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) X(11) 1(12) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) MARATHON FL 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 2(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) KEY WEST FL 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 3(24) X(24) 1(25) X(25) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 10(10) 15(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 9(40) X(40) X(40) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 20(43) 1(44) X(44) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 33(44) 1(45) X(45) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) 1(12) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17) X(17) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN