Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Forecast Discussion Number 1

By | August 19, 2022

000
WTNT44 KNHC 192052
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042022
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad low pressure 
area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become better 
organized during the last 24 h, and reports from an Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate winds near 30 kt.  
However, both the aircraft and scatterometer data show that 
the disturbance does not yet have a well-defined circulation 
center.  Since the system is likely to develop further and make 
landfall as a tropical storm in less than 36 h, advisories are 
being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four with Tropical 
Storm Warnings being issued for portions of the coasts of 
northeastern Mexico and south Texas.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/12.  The disturbance 
is on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge, and a general 
northwest motion should continue until the system moves inland over 
northeastern Mexico.  The track guidance is tightly clustered, and 
the forecast track lies close to the various consensus models.

The disturbance is in an environment of light westerly vertical 
shear, and this should continue until landfall.  This should allow 
continued development until the system reaches the coast, and the 
official intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 40 kt 
near landfall.  It should be noted, though, that the global models 
do not develop the system significantly before landfall, and if 
they are correct any development could be slower than currently 
forecast.  The system will weaken after landfall, and by 60 h it 
is forecast to be absorbed into a larger low pressure area forming 
over western and northern Texas.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of 
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Saturday, where a Tropical 
Storm Warning has been issued.

2. Rains from the system may begin to affect the eastern coast of 
Mexico from northern Veracruz into southern Tamaulipas tonight into 
early Saturday.  This rainfall may produce life threatening flash 
flooding and mudslides.  Rain from this system may move into far 
south Texas during the day on Saturday.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 20.7N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  20/0600Z 22.0N  95.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  20/1800Z 23.8N  96.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 25.6N  98.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  21/1800Z 27.1N  99.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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