Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Forecast Discussion Number 45

By | September 16, 2023

WTNT43 KNHC 161454

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number  45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

The core of Lee is very near the west coast of Nova Scotia.  Data 
from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that the minimum pressure 
has been steady at 965 mb, but the surface winds are down a little 
to 65 kt.  Dropsonde data indicate that winds are notably stronger 
just off the surface, so significant wind gusts are likely in areas 
of heavy rain and over elevated terrain near the coast.  In fact, an 
observation on Grand Manan Island in New Brunswick, Canada, recently 
recorded a wind gust of 81 kt (150 km/h).  Radar data from New 
England and Nova Scotia show bands of heavy rain onshore of portions 
of coastal New England and Atlantic Canada.  

Lee continues to accelerate northward and has jogged to the 
left this morning.  The core of the cyclone will likely brush the 
western portion of Nova Scotia during the next couple of hours and 
then move inland near or just east of the U.S./Canada border this 
afternoon.  After landfall, a faster northeastward motion is 
expected as a trough approaches the system, which should take Lee 
across portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Sunday.

Little change in strength is expected before landfall, and the core 
winds are likely to come ashore in far down east Maine and western 
portions of New Brunswick.  Steady weakening is expected after Lee 
moves inland, and the system is expected to dissipate by late 


1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of southern New
Brunswick and Nova Scotia later today within the Hurricane Watch
areas.  Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are
occurring across portions of coastal Maine and Atlantic
Canada, and will continue to spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning areas.  The strong winds are already leading to downed
trees and power outages.

2. Heavy rainfall from Lee may produce localized urban and small 
stream flooding in portions of far eastern Massachusetts, eastern 
Maine, New Brunswick and western Nova Scotia today.

3. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will continue
to affect the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands through the


INIT  16/1500Z 43.5N  66.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  17/0000Z 45.7N  65.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  17/1200Z 48.3N  62.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  18/0000Z 50.8N  57.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  18/1200Z 53.0N  50.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Cangialosi

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