Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily Forecast Discussion Number 5

By | August 21, 2023

WTNT42 KNHC 211430

Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072023
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

Emily has been devoid of deep convection for nearly 15 hours and no 
longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Although sea 
surface temperatures are sufficiently warm to support occasional 
bursts of convection, strong wind shear and a very dry environment 
should prevent it from re-organizing as a tropical cyclone for at 
least the next couple days. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based 
on ASCAT-B data valid at 1200 UTC.

In about 3 days, the remnant low is forecast to turn northward as it 
encounters a deep-layer trough over the central Atlantic. While it 
turns, Emily could briefly encounter a more favorable upper-level 
wind pattern, which could support the redevelopment of convection. 
However, the low-level center may also become stretched and 
ill-defined at the same time. Regeneration as a tropical cyclone 
does not appear likely enough to explicitly forecast it at this 
time. Information on the potential for regeneration will be included 
in future Tropical Weather Outlooks, if necessary. Future 
information on Emily can also be found in High Seas forecasts issued 
by the National Hurricane Center and Ocean Prediction Center.


INIT  21/1500Z 21.1N  41.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  22/0000Z 21.6N  43.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/1200Z 22.5N  45.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/0000Z 23.6N  47.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1200Z 25.2N  48.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  24/0000Z 27.1N  49.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/1200Z 29.5N  49.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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