Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 1

By | September 12, 2019

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2019


000
WTNT24 KNHC 122045
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THE
ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N  74.8W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N  74.8W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N  74.8W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.5N  76.0W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.5N  77.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 26.5N  78.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.5N  80.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 30.0N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.0N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 31.5N  80.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N  74.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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