Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 7

By | October 7, 2024

349 
WTNT44 KNHC 070242
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Milton continues to intensify.  The hurricane's center is embedded 
within a circular Central Dense Overcast containing very intense 
convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C.  Tail Doppler wind 
data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the 
circulation is quite symmetric, with very little vertical tilt from 
1 to 5 km elevation.  Observations from both Air Force and NOAA 
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the central pressure is falling and 
that the intensity has increased to near 80 kt.

Fixes from the aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that the
hurricane is moving generally eastward with an initial motion
estimate of 100/6 kt.  Milton is moving within the southern portion
of a broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, and is also
being influenced by the flow on the southwest side of a low- to
mid-level cyclone currently over the eastern Gulf.  The
numerical guidance indicates that this cyclone will shift east
of Florida within the next day or two, so that its influence
on Milton will gradually lessen with time.  As the  mid-level
trough digs over the central Gulf, the hurricane should turn
northeastward with some increase in forward speed during the
next 2-3 days and be near the west coast of Florida in the 72
hour time frame.  After crossing Florida, the cyclone should turn
east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic waters off the
southeastern United States.  The official track forecast follows
essentially the same trajectory as the previous NHC prediction but
is a bit slower, in accordance with the latest dynamical model
consensus guidance.  Again it should be noted that the average NHC
track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus
on the exact track.

Milton should continue to traverse waters of very high oceanic heat 
content within an environment of light vertical wind shear and moist 
low- to mid-level air for the next 1-2 days.  The official intensity 
forecast is similar to the previous one and shows Milton rapidly 
strengthening to category 4 intensity within the next couple of 
days.  Thereafter, stronger upper-level westerlies over the northern 
Gulf of Mexico should result in increasing shear.  The latest SHIPS 
model output shows the shear over Milton increasing significantly in 
60-72 hours.  Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the 
hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast.  However, the system is 
still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in 
Florida, with life-threatening hazards along portions of the the 
coastline.


Key Messages:

1. Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Users are reminded
to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains
significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of
Milton.

2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location
of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-
threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm
Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued early Monday.
Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given
by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Monday
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river
flooding.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions
possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane
Watch are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 22.4N  93.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 22.2N  91.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 22.3N  90.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 22.9N  88.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 24.2N  86.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 25.8N  84.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 27.5N  82.3W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
 96H  11/0000Z 29.6N  77.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/0000Z 31.0N  71.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


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