Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 19

By | October 7, 2024

350 
WTNT43 KNHC 070242
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

Leslie has been more or less status quo this evening, with the 
hurricane characterized by a small central dense overcast that 
occasionally has a warm spot appearing on infrared images. 
Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged for 
00 UTC, while the objective intensity estimates are a tad lower 
than earlier. For now, Leslie's intensity will be held at 80 kt 
until there is a more distinct degradation in its satellite 
appearance. 

Leslie continues to move northwestward, with its motion estimated at 
315/10 kt this advisory. The hurricane has been primarily steered by 
a mid-level ridge to its northeast which should continue for the 
next several days, followed by a turn to the north-northwest or 
north by the end of the forecast period as it reaches the westward 
extent of the ridge. There has been a slight rightward shift in the 
guidance this cycle, and the NHC track forecast is a little  north 
and east of the prior track forecast, roughly in between the latest 
TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. 

There are a couple of negative factors likely to influence Leslie's 
intensity over the next few days. First, while 200-850 mb vertical 
wind shear is forecast to be fairly low, undercutting this outflow 
layer is stronger 20-25 kt mid-level southwesterly shear. This shear 
appears likely to import some very dry mid-level air, seen on water 
vapor GOES-16 imagery southwest of Leslie, into the hurricane's 
small inner core. At the same time, sea-surface temperatures along 
Leslie's path are likely to be at least somewhat cooler thanks in 
part to upwelling from Hurricane Kirk last week. The intensity 
guidance, especially the regional-hurricane models, show quite a bit 
of weakening due to these negative factors, and the NHC intensity 
forecast also will show weakening through the forecast period. In 
fact, the latest NHC forecast shows a bit more weakening than the 
prior advisory, as Leslie's small core could be more prone to these 
negative conditions. However, this forecast is still a little above 
the latest HAFS-A/B forecasts which show more rapid weakening over 
the next few days. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 15.0N  39.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 16.0N  40.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 17.4N  42.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 18.8N  44.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 20.2N  45.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 21.2N  47.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 21.9N  48.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 23.4N  50.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 25.0N  50.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


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