Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 9

By | September 30, 2023

WTNT43 KNHC 301455

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2023

Satellite images show that Rina remains disorganized with any deep 
convection sheared off well southeast of the center.  Intensity 
estimates are dropping, and ASCAT just came in with maximum winds 
just above 35 kt, so the initial wind speed is set to 40 kt.  
Strong shear should continue near the cyclone until it dissipates 
in 2-3 days.  Model guidance is in relatively good agreement on 
this scenario, and the new intensity forecast is lower than before, 
showing remnant low status as the weekend closes.

Rina continues moving west-northwestward, now at 10 kt.  The storm 
should rotate northwestward and northward on the northern side of 
Philippe for the next couple of days.  Thereafter, a weakened Rina
is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure as it moves 
into the subtropics.  The new track forecast is very similar to the 
last forecast, with no big changes to the guidance.


INIT  30/1500Z 21.2N  50.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 22.1N  51.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 23.5N  53.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 25.0N  55.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/1200Z 27.0N  56.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Blake

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