Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 10

By | September 30, 2023

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023

Visible satellite imagery shows the exposed center of Rina is well 
displaced from deep convection, as strong northwesterly shear 
continues to impact the storm. The intensity is held at a possibly 
generous 40 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of the subjective 
and objective satellite estimates.

The intensity forecast shows gradual weakening through Sunday. Given 
Rina's structural trends today, and model simulated IR satellite 
data over the next couple of days, the forecast shows Rina 
degenerating into a remnant low Sunday evening. The strong shear as 
diagnosed by SHIPS is expected to continue impacting Rina and its 
remnants until the cyclone dissipates early next week. Even if the 
shear isn't enough to prevent convective reformation, Rina will 
likely struggle with dry mid-level relative humidities.

Rina is now moving northwestward at a slightly faster 12 kt. The 
storm or its remnant low should continue to track northwestward and 
then northward along the northern periphery of Philippe for the next 
couple of days. The new track forecast is very similar to the 
previous forecast.


INIT  30/2100Z 22.6N  51.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 23.5N  53.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 25.1N  54.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/0600Z 27.0N  55.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/1800Z 29.0N  55.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Mahoney/Blake


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