Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 25

By | September 29, 2023

WTNT42 KNHC 291448

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023

There has been little change in Philippe's satellite appearance this 
morning.  The storm remains sheared with the low-level center 
located near the western edge of the main area of deep convection.  
The satellite intensity estimates continue to have a large spread, 
ranging from 30 to 55 kt.  ASCAT data should be available soon, and 
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 
Philippe this afternoon.  Both of these datasets will provide a 
better assessment of Philippe's intensity and structure.

Philippe has only moved roughly 40 miles over the past 24 hours, and 
it has been generally drifting to the southwest during that time.  
The slow motion over the past day or so is due to its interaction 
with Tropical Storm Rina several hundred miles to its east.  Since 
these tropical cyclones are expected to continue to interact through 
the weekend, Philippe is forecast to crawl southwestward during the 
next 2 or 3 days.  After that time, Rina is expected to separate 
from Philippe as a mid-level ridge builds over the subtropical 
central Atlantic.  In response, Philippe should turn sharply 
northward early next week.  Although there remains a fair amount of 
spread in the models, they are in considerably better agreement 
today compared to the past couple of days.  Overall, little change 
was made to the previous track forecast, and it continues to lie 
close to the various consensus models.  

Although Philippe is still being affected by shear, the environment 
over the next several days appears to become less hostile.  Light 
to moderate wind shear, increasing mid-level humidities around the 
storm, and very warm SSTs should allow Philippe to gradually 
strengthen.  The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward 
again this cycle, but still lies on the lower end of the model 
guidance.  Additional upward revisions seem likely if the 
guidance persists. 


INIT  29/1500Z 18.3N  55.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 18.1N  55.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 17.8N  55.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 17.4N  56.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 17.3N  56.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  02/0000Z 17.5N  56.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 18.4N  57.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 21.5N  58.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 26.1N  57.4W   60 KT  70 MPH

Forecaster Cangialosi

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