Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 10

By | September 23, 2023

WTNT41 KNHC 232053

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Ophelia continues to weaken as it crosses into southeastern 
Virginia. The radar presentation has been gradually degrading as the 
Doppler velocities continue to decrease. However, there remains a 
WeatherFlow station in Pamlico Sound reporting surface winds between 
30-35 kt. In addition, an earlier scatterometer pass also showed 
tropical-storm-force winds well to the northeast in association with 
an offshore frontal boundary. Thus, Ophelia will remain a tropical 
storm with maximum sustained winds of 35 kt for this advisory.

Ophelia is still moving northward at 360/10 kt. Little has changed 
with the forecast reasoning, as Ophelia should gradually turn 
northeastward over the next 12-24 hours, with the center gradually 
losing definition as it begins to merge with the aforementioned 
frontal boundary off the mid-Atlantic coastline. The latest track 
guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, and the latest 
NHC track forecast is quite similar, if just a touch north, of the 
prior forecast. Ophelia should continue to gradually spin down 
inland, though higher winds may still continue to be observed with 
the frontal boundary to the system's northeast. By tomorrow, Ophelia 
is expected to merge with this frontal boundary, marking its 
transition to post-tropical status, with the system expected to 
become fully absorbed by early next week.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue through this evening 
along portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward along 
the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coastline within the Tropical Storm Warning 

2. Storm surge inundation will continue through this evening over 
portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina and southeastern 
Virginia, including Pamlico Sound and the tidal rivers of the lower 
Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place.  Residents 
in these areas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall from Ophelia may produce locally considerable 
flash and urban flooding impacts across portions of the 
Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through 

4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.


INIT  23/2100Z 36.8N  77.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  24/0600Z 37.9N  77.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  24/1800Z 39.1N  76.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  25/0600Z 39.6N  73.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

Forecaster Papin

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