000 WTNT45 KNHC 190843 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ASCAT data from 0309 UTC showed that the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea had developed a closed circulation and well-defined center, with a swath of 30-35 kt winds extending north off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Based on that information, the system was designated as Tropical Storm Nadine in the 1 AM CDT (0600 UTC) intermediate advisory. Satellite data and radar images from Belize indicate that Nadine's structure is broad but is gradually becoming better organized, and the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.5/35 kt. Winds to tropical storm force have been measured along the coast as far north as Cancun. The scatterometer data showed that Nadine formed a little farther south than where the disturbance was previously estimated, but the initial motion is still westward (270 degrees) at 8 kt. Nadine should begin moving faster toward the west through the day while being steered by a mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. There is good agreement among the track models, and the NHC track forecast lies between the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. On this track, Nadine's center should make landfall along the Belize coast sometime late morning or midday and then continue westward across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico late this afternoon into tonight. Some slight strengthening is possible this morning before Nadine reaches the coast due to low atmospheric wind shear and ocean temperatures around 29 degrees Celsius. Weakening is forecast after Nadine moves inland, and the storm should fall below tropical storm strength later this afternoon. Nadine is likely to dissipate over southeastern Mexico by early Sunday. Key Messages: 1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the warning area through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 17.4N 87.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 17.2N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0600Z 17.0N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg