Tropical Storm Margot Forecast Discussion Number 39

By | September 17, 2023

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
300 AM GMT Sun Sep 17 2023

Strong northerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air have
taken a toll on Margot during the past 24 hours.  Deep convection
became displaced to the south of the center earlier today, and
within the past 6 hours or so, the deep convection has essentially
dissipated.   The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt,
which is a blend of the latest Dvorak T and CI numbers from TAFB.

Margot has completed a clockwise loop over the past few days, and 
the storm is now moving westward at 7 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the 
north of Margot should steer the cyclone westward to 
west-northwestward for about another 24 hours.  After that time, the 
ridge is predicted to slide eastward and then southward causing 
Margot to turn northward, and then east-northeastward to eastward 
around the northern side of the ridge.  The track guidance continues 
to be in good agreement with this scenario and only minor 
adjustments to the previous NHC track were needed.

The environment ahead of Margot is not expected to improve during 
the next couple of days.  Moderate to strong shear and dry air is 
likely to prevent the return of organized deep convection during the 
next day or two, Margot is now forecast to become a post-tropical 
cyclone during that time. On Monday night into Tuesday, the cyclone 
is forecast to interact with an approaching mid-latitude trough that 
could produce enough instability to allow for a return of deep 
convection and some slight restrengthening.  Shortly after that 
time, northwesterly shear and another surge of dry air should cause 
a gradual spin down of the winds.


INIT  17/0300Z 33.9N  40.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 34.1N  41.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 35.1N  43.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1200Z 36.5N  43.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0000Z 37.9N  41.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/1200Z 38.3N  37.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  20/0000Z 37.8N  35.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  21/0000Z 37.0N  32.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/0000Z 37.6N  29.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Brown


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