Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 24

By | October 8, 2024

000
WTNT43 KNHC 080836
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
500 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024

This morning's satellite presentation consists of a shrinking cold 
cloud top (-73C) irregular-shaped central dense overcast and curved 
banding features in the south and north portion of the cyclone.  A 
recent METOP-B scatterometer pass revealed a somewhat distorted
asymmetric circulation located near the southeastern edge of the
convective mass.  A blend of the AiDT/DPRINT/DMINT objective 
estimates and a recent UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis yield an initial 
intensity of 60 kt for this advisory.

A mid-tropospheric tongue of dry, stable air is penetrating Leslie's
deteriorating convective inner core from the southwest while
mid-level southwesterly flow undercuts the diffluence aloft.  The
statistical SHIPS intensity guidance shows a significant increase
in the shear magnitude by mid-period.  This and the
ongoing inhibiting thermodynamic surrounding environment should
cause Leslie to lose its organized convection in 72 hrs, if not
sooner, and become a post-tropical cyclone.  Further weakening is
expected throughout the period, and the official forecast indicates
that the cyclone will degenerate into a remnant low this weekend.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/11 kt.
The forecast track philosophy has not changed for this advisory, and
Leslie should continue to move in the mid-level peripheral flow of
a subtropical ridge to its northeast through the end of the week.
A turn toward the north is expected around the 72 hr period as it
rounds the southwestern portion of the above mentioned ridge.  Only
small adjustments were made to the NHC forecast just to agree a
little more with the skilled consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 18.8N  44.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 19.8N  45.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 21.1N  47.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 22.1N  48.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 22.9N  49.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  10/1800Z 23.8N  49.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 25.0N  49.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  12/0600Z 28.7N  46.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  13/0600Z 32.4N  39.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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