Tropical Storm Gert Forecast Discussion Number 21

By | September 3, 2023

WTNT42 KNHC 030233

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

Gert remains a resilient compact tropical storm in strong wind
shear conditions and has even managed to strengthen a little more.
The low-level center is partially exposed on the northeast side of
the main area of deep convection.  An ASCAT pass from around 00Z
showed peak winds in the 45-50 kt range in the southeast quadrant,
and based on that data, the initial wind speed is increased to 50
kt.  This value is above the latest satellite intensity estimates.

The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at 5 kt.  This
motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during
the next day or so as the system gets swept up by the much larger
circulation of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia.  Most of the models
show Gert dissipating in a day or so, and the NHC forecast has now
moved up dissipation to 36 hours based on that guidance.


INIT  03/0300Z 29.1N  53.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 30.7N  52.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 33.6N  51.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Cangialosi

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