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PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 46(55) 15(70)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 12(39)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GRAND TURK 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) 1(17)
CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
PONCE PR 34 11 32(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
AGUADILLA PR 34 5 35(40) 4(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
AGUADILLA PR 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN JUAN PR 34 12 44(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
SAN JUAN PR 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 77 16(93) X(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
VIEQUES PR 50 5 23(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
VIEQUES PR 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 93 6(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT THOMAS 50 21 33(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
SAINT THOMAS 64 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT CROIX 34 91 4(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
SAINT CROIX 50 13 12(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
SAINT CROIX 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 96 X(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SABA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SABA 50 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ST EUSTATIUS 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BARBUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
AVES 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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