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PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0900 UTC WED AUG 14 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 63(65) 19(84) 2(86)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 19(51) 2(53)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 14(30) 2(32)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GRAND TURK 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
PUERTO PLATA 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PONCE PR 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AGUADILLA PR 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN JUAN PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
VIEQUES PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT JOHN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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