Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 10

000
WTNT25 KNHC 140245
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
0300 UTC WED AUG 14 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  65.3W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  65.3W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N  64.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.3N  66.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.4N  68.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.4N  68.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.3N  68.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  50SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.1N  67.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.9N  66.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N  64.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 38.0N  63.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N  65.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART