000 WTNT42 KNHC 080254 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Radar and satellite trends suggest Beryl is becoming better organized tonight. Deep convection has increased near the center, with new convective elements emerging around the northern and southern portions of the circulation. Tail Doppler Radar data from the NOAA aircraft suggest the radius of maximum wind has contracted a bit, and the vortex has become more vertically aligned. However, the eyewall is open to the west, where there is still some evidence of dry air in the circulation. The intensity was raised to 60 kt based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level wind data (66 kt at 700 mb), and the most recent aircraft pass through the northeast quadrant still supports the 60-kt intensity for this advisory. The minimum pressure has continued to slowly fall, with the latest dropsonde data supporting 986 mb. The environmental and oceanic conditions remain quite favorable for intensification while Beryl approaches the Texas coast overnight. The recent structural changes noted above are expected to allow Beryl to re-strengthen into a hurricane overnight, and the potential for significant intensification leading up to landfall is still indicated by some of the regional hurricane guidance, particularly the HWRF and HMON. At this point, time is the greatest limiting factor as the storm is less than 12 h from landfall. While the 12-h forecast point shows a 65-kt hurricane inland over Texas, the peak intensity is expected between now and the 12-h forecast point, and is thus not explicitly shown in this forecast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected while the system moves farther inland. The long-term motion of Beryl is north-northwestward at about 9 kt, but recent radar and aircraft fixes have shown a motion just east of due north. A northward motion overnight is expected to bring the center of Beryl inland along the middle Texas coast roughly between Matagorda Bay and Freeport early on Monday morning. The short-term NHC track forecast is just slightly east of the previous one. After landfall, Beryl is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough while transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should follow any advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders. 2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to portions of the Texas coast early Monday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Mesquite Bay to San Luis Pass. 3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected tonight through Monday night across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also expected. 4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 27.6N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 29.2N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 31.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1200Z 33.7N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0000Z 36.0N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 10/1200Z 38.4N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/0000Z 40.4N 84.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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