Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 24 2025
000 WTNT41 KNHC 241411 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012025 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 24 2025 The area of low pressure between Bermuda and the Azores that we have been monitoring for a few days (90L) developed persistent deep convection overnight. This is shown by the latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB of 2.0, and the current wind estimate of 35 kt is supported by the past several scatterometer passes showing 30 to 35 knot winds. Even though deep convection is now decreasing, due to the persistent convection overnight and pulsing convection over the past 36 hours, the system has met the criteria of being classified as a tropical storm, albeit a marginal one, making Tropical Storm Andrea the first Atlantic storm of the year. The initial motion is 060/15 knots. This motion is expected to continue through dissipation, which is forecast to occur by 36 hours. The track forecast closely follows the TVCA and HCCA consensus guidance. Andrea will be a short-lived tropical storm, as environmental conditions will become increasingly hostile over the next day or so. Water temperatures will plummet to around 21/22C, with vertical wind shear increasing to 35-40 knots, in a dry mid-level environment. The intensity forecast holds Andrea at tropical storm strength today, with the system weakening into a post-tropical remnant low by Wednesday morning because of the cold waters and dissipating shortly thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 36.6N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 37.9N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 39.6N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Blake/Hagen