Tropical Depression Twenty-one Forecast Discussion Number 2

By | October 24, 2023

WTNT41 KNHC 240233

Tropical Depression Twenty-One Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212023
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023

It has been a challenge to find the center of the depression this 
evening. Surface observations from Bluefields Airport in Nicaragua 
indicated that the center of the depression likely moved northeast 
of the observing station earlier this evening, but pressures in the 
area were not particularly low. Since then, a robust mid-level 
circulation has been visible in shortwave-infrared imagery, but it 
isn't clear if this extends to the surface. ASCAT data is expected 
within the next couple of hours, which should provide clarity over 
whether the center of the depression has reformed under the 
mid-level circulation, or if has already moved inland. TAFB and SAB 
Dvorak estimates still support an intensity near 25 kt.

Once inland, the depression should quickly weaken and dissipate. 
However, its worth noting that if the center is still over water 
and remains there for any period of time overnight, some slight 
strengthening could occur since the environment is otherwise 
favorable for intensification. The long-term estimated motion is 
around 310/4 kt, but this is highly uncertain. The depression, or 
its remnants, are forecast to continue northwestward tonight, and 
then generally head westward toward the eastern Pacific after that. 


1. Heavy rains from the depression will continue to impact portions
of Nicaragua through Tuesday night with heavy rainfall spreading
into Honduras during the day on Tuesday. This rainfall is likely to
produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.


INIT  24/0300Z 12.4N  83.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 13.1N  84.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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