000 WTNT42 KNHC 300239 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 The depression is gradually becoming better organized while continuing to produce a large area of deep convection. Recent scatterometer winds indicate the center of the system lies on the northern side of the convective cloud mass, with 25-30 kt winds noted within the eastern semicircle of the circulation and weaker winds on the west side. Based on the scatterometer data, the system remains a 30-kt depression for this advisory. The depression is moving westward at about 6 kt, to the south of an established subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. This feature should keep the tropical cyclone on a westward to west-northwestward heading during the next couple of days. Then, a northwestward turn is forecast later this week as a deep-layer trough over the north-central Atlantic weakens the ridge. This recurvature over open waters is supported by the latest track guidance and global model ensembles, and the updated NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one with no notable changes. Intensification is expected due to very favorable environmental and oceanic conditions. The tropical cyclone will move over SSTs warmer than 29C during the next several days, within a moist and unstable environment with weak deep-layer shear. Once the system becomes more consolidated and establishes an inner core, its rate of strengthening is likely to increase. The latest NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN multi-model consensus aids, which brings the system to hurricane strength in 48 h and major hurricane intensity by day 5. In addition, the system is forecast to become a large hurricane, with an expanding wind and wave field as it gains latitude later in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 13.9N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 14.0N 34.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 14.2N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 14.5N 38.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 15.2N 40.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 16.4N 42.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 17.8N 43.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 20.5N 46.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 22.5N 48.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart