Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Discussion Number 1

By | October 25, 2019

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019


000
WTNT42 KNHC 251432
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172019
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system in the
western Gulf of Mexico has developed a well-defined circulation.
In addition, a cluster of strong convection is located near and to
the northeast of the low-level center.  Thus, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Depression Seventeen.  The initial intensity
is set at 30 kt, and it is possible based on last night's
scatterometer data that this is conservative.

A deep-layer baroclinic trough over the southern Plains states
should steer the cyclone north-northeastward with an increase in
forward speed during the next couple of days, with the center
crossing the northern Gulf coast tonight or Saturday morning.  The
track guidance is in good agreement, and the forecast track lies
close to the various consensus models.

A surface cold front associated with the baroclinic trough is
quickly approaching the center of the depression, and the tropical
cyclone is expected to merge with the front during the next 12 h.
Based on this, the cyclone is expected to become a gale-force
post-tropical low before it reaches the northern Gulf coast.  The
low should weaken after landfall, with dissipation expected just
after 48 h.  There is a chance that the system could briefly become
a tropical storm this afternoon before it merges with the cold
front.  However, even if this occurs it will make little difference
to the impacts on the northern Gulf coast.

Key messages:

1. Since depression is expected to merge with a cold front and
become post-tropical by tonight, hazards related to wind, rainfall
and coastal flooding will be covered by products issued by local
National Weather Service forecast offices, available at weather.gov


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 25.6N  94.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 28.2N  93.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  26/1200Z 32.6N  91.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  27/0000Z 38.1N  89.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  27/1200Z 43.2N  85.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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