Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 23

By | September 17, 2024

000
WTNT42 KNHC 170238
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024

Gordon has become a little better organized this evening, with 
convection intensifying around the center-- a marked improvement 
from 24 hours ago.  A pair of scatterometer passes from 00-01 UTC 
showed believable maximum winds of 25-30 kt, and 30 kt is chosen 
out of continuity from the last advisory.

The depression has been creeping westward recently, estimated at 
about 3 kt.  As mid-level high pressure builds to the northeast of 
the cyclone, the tropical cyclone should turn northward on Tuesday 
and move faster to the north-northeast for the next few days.  A 
frontal wave currently seen about 10 degrees north of Gordon should 
also cause the cyclone to accelerate midweek as Gordon moves around 
that feature.  The biggest change to the guidance this evening is 
that most are a bit faster, so the latest NHC prediction is trended 
in that way.  

Modest increases in low- to mid-level moisture around Gordon are 
shown in the model fields during the next couple of days.  In 
combination with generally low shear during that time, these 
factors suggest that Gordon will be primed for a comeback, and the 
intensity guidance generally calls for it to become a tropical storm 
again around midweek.  The low-shear conditions should last 
through late week, so the NHC forecast is nudged upward from 2-4 
days, a touch below the model consensus.  The shear could get 
rather prohibitive by day 5 so the intensity forecast is leveled 
off then, but considerable uncertainty exists at that time frame, 
with model guidance ranging from a depression to a category 2 
hurricane.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 19.0N  48.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 19.3N  49.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 19.9N  49.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 20.8N  48.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 22.3N  47.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  19/1200Z 24.2N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 25.8N  45.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 27.5N  44.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  22/0000Z 29.5N  43.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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