Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 1

By | August 29, 2023

WTNT41 KNHC 291448

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

Visible satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data indicate 
that the area of low pressure over the central subtropical Atlantic 
has become better defined.  Deep convection associated with the 
system has persisted since yesterday, but it is located over the 
eastern side of the circulation due to moderate westerly shear.  The 
ASCAT data revealed believable peak winds of around 30 kt, and that 
is the basis for the initial intensity for this advisory.  Guidance 
suggests that the shear could decrease slightly in the short term 
which could allow for some slight strengthening. The NHC forecast 
follows that scenario and calls for the depression to become a 
tropical storm within the next 12 to 24 hours.  After that time, the 
shear is forecast to increase markedly and no additional 
strengthening is indicated.  By 72 hours, the system is forecast to 
become post-tropical, and dissipation is indicated by 96 hours.  
Both of those events could occur sooner than indicated below. 

The depression is currently moving slowly northward or 360/2 kt.  A 
slow north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast during the 
day or so as a mid-level ridge currently to the north of the 
depression slides eastward.  After that time, a slightly faster 
northward to north-northeastward motion is expected as the cyclone 
is steered between the aforementioned ridge and Hurricane Franklin 
to its west.  The NHC forecast is between the HFIP corrected 
consensus and the various multi-model consensus aids. 


INIT  29/1500Z 27.9N  51.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 28.3N  51.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 28.9N  52.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 29.7N  52.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 30.8N  52.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 32.5N  52.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 35.0N  51.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brown

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