Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight (AT3/AL082024)

By | September 16, 2024

000
WTNT33 KNHC 160549
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082024
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...DISTURBANCE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH 
CAROLINA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND COASTAL 
FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 78.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 
24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
32.2 North, longitude 78.1 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected
through Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of the system
should reach the coast within the warning area this afternoon or 
this evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. This system is likely to become a tropical storm today, and 
some strengthening is possible before the system makes landfall.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high... 80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.  NOAA buoy 41004, located about 45 miles (75 km) 
southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, recently reported a 
sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter dropsonde data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the 
warning area this morning.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will
bring 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated totals near 8 inches
across northern and northeast portions of South Carolina along with
the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Across the rest of North Carolina
and much of Virginia, the Potential Tropical Cyclone will bring 2 to
4 inches of rain, with isolated totals near 6 inches. This rainfall
could lead to isolated to scattered flash and urban flooding and
minor river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur today across the
eastern Carolinas.

SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the
southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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