000 WTNT32 KNHC 171433 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 1000 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 ...DISTURBANCE'S CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DECREASING... ...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 79.1W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 79.1 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and an additional acceleration toward the northeast is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across Jamaica later today, southeastern Cuba by early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, but the system's chance of becoming a tropical cyclone appears to be decreasing. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible, especially in areas of heavy rain, on Jamaica today, southeastern Cuba and Haiti tonight, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to produce additional total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 16 inches across portions of Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and southern Hispaniola through Sunday. These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. The system is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Berg