000 WTNT42 KNHC 170233 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023 The disturbance has generally changed little over the past several hours. Although some convection has persisted near the low-level center, the overall convective pattern is quite ragged. In fact, the strongest thunderstorms are well removed to the northeast of the center and currently over portions of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Haiti. Since the system still lacks a well-defined center and organized deep convection, it remains a potential tropical cyclone for now. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier Air Force reconnaissance data. The system is moving north-northeastward at about 7 kt. A mid- to upper-level trough currently over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to push southeastward causing the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast over the next few days. This motion should take the center of the disturbance across Jamaica on Friday, eastern Cuba Friday night or early Saturday, and across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later on Saturday. The system will likely merge with the trough on Sunday, or perhaps sooner than that. There are significant speed differences in the models, with the ECMWF being the fastest and some of the hurricane regional models the slowest. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one, and leans toward the faster side of the guidance envelope. The environmental factors and the broad and disorganized structure of the disturbance suggest that the system will likely only a strengthen a little during the next couple of days. The disturbance could become a short-lived tropical cyclone while it moves through the west-central Caribbean region and near the southeastern Bahamas. However, after it passes that area, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear should cause the system to lose organization, and the cyclone is forecast to become extratropical in 48-60 hours when it merges with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and generally near the middle of the guidance envelope. The most significant hazard from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, especially in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Saturday, and tropical storm watches are in effect for these areas. 2. Heavy rains from Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two will impact portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and Hispaniola through Monday morning. This rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 15.9N 81.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/1200Z 16.9N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 18/0000Z 18.7N 77.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 20.8N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 23.9N 71.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 27.6N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/0000Z 31.9N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi