Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

By | September 22, 2023

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FONT11 KNHC 220251
PWSAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN                                  
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162023               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS       
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                     

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   X(15)   X(15)

NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   X(13)   X(13)

BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)

DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  12(16)   X(16)   X(16)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)   X(14)   X(14)

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)  19(35)   X(35)   X(35)
CAPE HENLOPEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  18(24)  15(39)   X(39)   X(39)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  10(23)   X(23)   X(23)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  22(32)  13(45)   X(45)   X(45)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)

CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   5(23)   X(23)   X(23)

DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  28(36)   5(41)   X(41)   X(41)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  28(37)   5(42)   X(42)   X(42)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X  10(10)  24(34)  22(56)   4(60)   X(60)   X(60)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   2( 2)  27(29)  22(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   2( 2)  17(19)  11(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  7  34(41)  31(72)   4(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   1( 1)  11(12)   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X  22(22)  43(65)   6(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

NEW RIVER NC   34 13  47(60)  25(85)   2(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   2( 2)  21(23)   4(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY  34 12  47(59)  25(84)   2(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   2( 2)  20(22)   3(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

SURF CITY NC   34 10  47(57)  20(77)   1(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
SURF CITY NC   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X  22(22)  20(42)   1(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)

BALD HEAD ISL  34 14  46(60)   9(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

LITTLE RIVER   34  6  32(38)   8(46)   1(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  5  27(32)   5(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

CHARLESTON SC  34  1   8( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

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