Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 4

By | September 22, 2023

000
WTNT21 KNHC 220831
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  75.0W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......210NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  75.0W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N  75.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.6N  75.8W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...250NE  70SE  70SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.4N  76.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...250NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 35.3N  76.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE  90SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 37.0N  76.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.3N  76.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 39.0N  75.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N  75.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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