000 WTNT31 KNHC 091137 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 700 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY MID-WEEK... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 94.9W ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Hurricane, Storm Surge, and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday and Wednesday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning Tuesday. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the southern Texas Coast and across southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. This rainfall would lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds. SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin