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PWSAT4
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
2100 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) 1(10)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 7(15)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 7(16)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 4(20)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) 4(25)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11)
KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 3(38) 2(40)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) 1(19)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 2(37) 1(38)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) 1(20)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10)
THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) X(18)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 1(18) 1(19)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) X(18) 1(19)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) 1(13)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MARATHON FL 34 X 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
KEY WEST FL 34 X 13(13) 5(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)
NAPLES FL 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 11(11) 17(28) 4(32) X(32) X(32)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 11(38) X(38) X(38)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 24(45) 1(46) X(46)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 1(22) X(22)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) X(22) 1(23)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CIENFUEGOS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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