000 WTNT34 KNHC 021732 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 ...DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY CROSSING EASTERN CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 77.5W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas * The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge * The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches may be required for a portion of this area tonight and Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 77.5 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba today, cross the Straits of Florida on Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night or Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aripeka, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL...1-3 ft Tampa Bay...1-3 ft Charlotte Harbor...1-3 ft RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and near the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall could result in areas of flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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