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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC MON AUG 12 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 39(43)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25) 1(26) X(26)
PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 12(29) 1(30) X(30)
AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 13(13) 23(36) 4(40) X(40) X(40)
VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 15(15) 18(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 25(25) 12(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
SABA 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 5( 5) 16(21) 1(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
BARBUDA 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
ANTIGUA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUADELOUPE 34 X 24(24) X(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
AVES 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
DOMINICA 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
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