Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

By | September 24, 2023

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FONT11 KNHC 240241
PWSAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162023               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BALTIMORE MD   34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

DOVER DE       34  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

WASHINGTON DC  34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  2  20(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  2  12(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

WALLOPS CDA    34  4   8(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

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