Post-Tropical Cyclone Margot Forecast Discussion Number 41

By | September 17, 2023

WTNT44 KNHC 171437

Post-Tropical Cyclone Margot Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 17 2023

Margot has lacked organized deep convection since around 00 UTC and
is no longer a tropical cyclone. Therefore, this is the last NHC

The latest Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB is the basis 
for the 35 kt initial intensity. Regeneration in the short term is 
not expected due to high wind shear and dry surrounding air. With no 
deep convection, the cyclone's winds should gradually decrease over 
the next day or so. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to turn 
slowly northward today and tonight, and then turn eastward by 
Tuesday in the wake of Post-Tropical Lee, which will be passing well 
to the north. While Margot's maximum winds could fluctuate slightly 
during this time, it could also open into a trough as early as 
Tuesday. After that, the cyclone or its remnants should meander west 
of the Azores for a day or two until it ultimately dissipates 
southeast of Nigel late this week.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at


INIT  17/1500Z 34.6N  42.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  18/0000Z 35.3N  43.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/1200Z 36.8N  43.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/0000Z 38.2N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/1200Z 38.4N  37.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  20/0000Z 37.7N  34.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1200Z 37.2N  33.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Leave a Reply