000
AXNT20 KNHC 282307
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Mar 1 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.
…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N11.5W and continues to 04N18W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N18W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5S41W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 09W
and 14W, and south of 02.5N and between 24W and 46W.
…GULF OF AMERICA…
A weak cold front is moving across southern Florida and extends
into the central Gulf waters from near Marco Island to 25.5N90W.
No significant convection is noted with this boundary. Weak high
pressure of 1019 mb has settled into the NE Gulf behind the front,
across the Florida Big Bend. Satellite imagery shows a cyclonic
swirl of low and middle-level clouds across the SW basin, and
offshore of Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered light to moderate showers
accompany this feature within 150 nm of the coast. The remainder
of the basin is under a weak high pressure pattern that supports
gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight to locally moderate
seas. The exception to this is along the coast of Veracruz where
moderate to fresh NW to N winds prevail.
For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move
southward and exit the basin this evening. High pressure will
develop over the NE Gulf waters in the wake of the front tonight
while a surface trough in the Bay of Campeche dissipates. A new
cold front is forecast to sink across the NE Gulf waters Sat night
and exit the SE basin Sun morning. Moderate to fresh NE winds
will follow this next front. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will
develop over the western half of the Gulf Sun evening, expand
across the remainder Gulf by Mon morning, and reach fresh to
strong speeds over the western half of the Gulf Tue morning ahead
of the next cold front forecast to come off the Texas coast late
Tue. The cold front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to
Veracruz offshore waters Wed morning and exit the basin Wed night
into Thu.
…CARIBBEAN SEA…
Weak high pressure is north of the western basin, while a broad
ridge extends from the NE Atlantic to the waters N of Puerto
Rico. This pressure pattern is forcing fresh to strong NE-E trade
winds across the south-central Caribbean, as confirmed by midday
satellite scatterometer data. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft.
The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are
prevalent in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere
across NW portions, moderate or weaker N to NE winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail. Pockets of low- level moisture continue
to traverse the Caribbean waters sustaining widely scattered
light showers.
For the forecast, strong NE winds offshore Colombia will pulse
each night to below gale-force through Tue night, while strong
trades will affect the Gulf of Venezuela and Venezuela offshore
waters Sat through Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds in the
central and eastern Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate
speeds Mon morning and continue through Tue night. Otherwise, the
tail of a cold front will move across northern Cuba Sun. High
pressure building in the wake of the front will lead to the
development of moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee of Cuba Sun
night into Mon night, and fresh to strong E to SE winds in the
Gulf of Honduras Tue night into Wed.
…ATLANTIC OCEAN…
A cold front extends from an extratropical cyclone in the far NW
Atlantic through 31N69W to southern Florida near Ft Lauderdale. A
few bands of showers are noted ahead of this boundary, along a
surface trough from 27N70W to the central Bahamas. Moderate to
locally fresh SW winds prevail within 180 nm east of the front,
east of 75W, while gentle to moderate northerly winds are found
behind the front. Seas there are 3-6 ft. Farther east, a second
trough extends from near 31N59W to 21N70W. Scattered showers are
occurring between the trough and 61W. Late morning satellite
scatterometer data indicated that moderate to fresh southerly
winds were occurring north of 27N and between 53W and 72W. Seas in
these waters are 4-6 ft. Weak high pressure dominates the
remainder of the waters west of 65W, supporting light to locally
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.
In the far eastern Atlantic, a cold front is dissipating as it
moves southward over the cold waters, currently extending from
24N19W to 23N32W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are evident
behind the frontal boundary E of 30W. A strong low pressure near
Portugal is producing a large swell region generating seas of 8-12
ft north of 26N and east of 27W. The rest of the tropical
Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge
centered to the northwest of the Azores. Recent satellite-derived
wind data show fresh to locally strong easterly winds over much of
the central and eastern Atlantic waters. These winds are
supporting seas of 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front extending to
southern Florida will reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas
offshore waters this evening while weakening, then dissipate just
E of Bermuda tonight. A second cold front will move off the NE
Florida coast Sat night, reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas
Sun morning, from 31N60W to the Windward Passage Mon morning, and
from 31N50W to 26N60W with tail stalling to the central Bahamas
Tue morning. Fresh to strong SW winds are forecast ahead of the
front N of 29N Sun and Sun night. Fresh to strong NE winds
following the front will affect the Bahamas offshore waters Mon
night through Tue night as strong high pressure builds N of the
stationary portion of the front. Looking ahead, fresh to strong
southerly winds will develop across the NE Florida offshore waters
Tue night into Wed, ahead of the next cold front forecast to
enter the NW offshore waters Wed night.
$$
Stripling