000
AXNT20 KNHC 270350
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Aug 27 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.
…TROPICAL WAVES…
A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 17N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 05N to 09.5N between 28W and 34W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 58W from 20N southward,
and moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 15N to 17.5N between 53W and 57W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78.5W from western
Jamaica to eastern Panama. It is moving west at around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 15N
to 21N between 75W and 80W.
…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16.5W, then curves
southwestward to 06N36W. Scattered moderate convection is found
south of the monsoon trough near the coast of Guinea and Sierra
Leone.
Coupling with an upper-level trough, the eastern end of the East
Pacific monsoon trough is triggering numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection along 11N in the SW Caribbean, near the coasts
of Colombian and Panama.
…GULF OF AMERICA…
A stationary front extends from just north of Tampa Bay to
Galveston Bay. A surface trough resides south of the front from
near Fort Myers, Florida, to near 27N93.5W. Betwen these two
boundaries, isolated moderate convection is present. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is also occurring over the
Bay of Campeche in association to two surface troughs over the
area. Fresh NE winds are ongoing offshore the Yucatan Peninsula,
otherwise winds are moderate or less across the basin. Seas are
less than 3 ft, except for some locally higher seas in the Bay of
Campeche and near the coast of the Yucatan in the vicinity of the
fresh winds.
For the forecast, the aforementioned front will move across
N-central Florida and the NE Gulf through Wed, then lift N of the
area by Thu. Gentle to moderate NE winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected in the wake of the front. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas will prevail, except moderate to
fresh NE to E winds over the S-central Gulf tonight, and again Wed
night as a trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves
westward at night. Slight to locally moderate seas are expected
with those winds.
…CARIBBEAN SEA…
Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections about convection in the Caribbean Sea. In addition to the
convection described in these sections, an upper level trough is
supporting scattered moderate convection in between western Cuba
and the Yucatan Peninsula. The subtropical ridge with an axis
oriented along 26N is sustaining a robust trade- wind pattern
across the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas
of 7 to 9 ft are evident across the central basin. Moderate to
fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate most of the rest of the
waters, except for gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in
the NW Caribbean. Locally fresh to strong NE winds are also
developing in the Windward Passage tonight.
For the forecast, a tropical wave located over the central
Caribbean, with axis along 78W, is producing scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to
rough seas are also associated with the wave that is forecast to
move from the central to the western Caribbean on Wed. Fresh to
strong winds will then become confined to the S-central waters by
midweek. Fresh E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras
through tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near the
Windward Passage through tonight. Northerly swell propagating
across the tropical Atlantic waters will continue to subside
tonight.
…ATLANTIC OCEAN…
A weak stationary front extends from 31N75W to near Daytona
Beach, Florida. A surface trough is found south of the front from
30N74W to near Fort Pierce, Florida. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along these boundaries. Scattered moderate
convection is also found from 23.5N to 26.5N between 56W and 62W
in association with a surface trough. Aside from convection
associated with a tropical wave, described in the section above,
the remainder of the basin is generally dry, as a weak pressure
gradient is inducing gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7
ft. However, in the far eastern Atlantic, within 200 nm of the
African coast, N of 18N, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas
prevail.
For the forecast, a slow moving cold front extending from 31N76W
to N Florida will reach from 31N75W to north-central Florida on
Wed, then will lift N of the area on Thu. Locally fresh winds and
moderate seas are expected SE of the front through this evening. A
ridge will dominate the remainder of the forecast region. Another
weak front may move into the NW waters by the end of the week
into the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola
through this evening. Meanwhile, northerly swell propagating
across the W Atlantic will continue to subside tonight.
$$
KRV