000 AXNT20 KNHC 310440 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Dec 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A 997 mb complex low is centered north of the area near 33N42W. Strong to near-gale force winds cover the waters north of 27N east of 50W, with rough to very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft covering the waters north of 25N between 30W and 50W. The low will lift north of the area through Tue, leaving an area of fresh to strong SW winds and 10 to 13 ft seas north of 21N between 25W and 45W, and lingering 8 to 10 ft swell north of 20N between 20W and 50W. These winds and seas will diminish south of 31N through Wed. For more details on the marine conditions, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over West Africa. The ITCZ extends from near 05N09W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from from 01N to 06N between 25W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge extends from the western Atlantic to the west-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted across the northwest Gulf, between the ridge and lower pressure over the Central Plains. Light to gentle breezes and 1 to 2 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the ridge will shift eastward Tue ahead of a cold front that will move into the northern Gulf Tue morning. The front will reach from Panama City, Florida to the mouth of the Rio Grande by Tue evening, then move southeast of the Gulf by Thu. Moderate to fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft that follow the front through Wed will diminish Thu as high pressure builds across the basin behind the front. Looking ahead, another front will move into the northern Gulf Thu night, and move southeast of the Gulf early Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate winds prevail in the central Caribbean with gentle to locally moderate winds in the eastern Caribbean. Over the western Caribbean, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in the central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Large swell persists in Atlantic exposures and passages of the Leeward Islands. For the forecast, large northerly swell to 8 ft will persist over the Atlantic waters and passages of the Leeward Islands through tonight, then subside. High pressure centered north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through Sat night, reaching strong speeds at night off Colombia Wed and Thu. The tail of a cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel by late Thu and dissipate early Fri. The passage of this front north of the area will support the development of moderate to fresh NE winds in the northwest Caribbean through Fri night, including the Windward Passage. Looking ahead, another front will move into the far northwest Caribbean late Sat. Building high pressure behind the front will support fresh to strong NE winds over much of the western Caribbean, to include the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about the significant swell event in the central Atlantic. In addition to the strong winds and rough to very rough seas over the central Atlantic, N swell of 8 to 12 ft cover the waters north 15N between 35W and 60W. Farther west, a trough reaches from 31N78W to central Florida. Gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft persist elsewhere east of 35W, with 4 to 6 ft seas in northerly swell. Elsewhere east of 35W, fresh E to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident north of 15N, and gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted south of 15N. For the forecast west of 55W, large swell east of 60W will subside through early Tue morning. A cold front will move off northeast Florida tonight, reach from Bermuda to central Cuba Wed night, then weaken as it reaches from 31N55W to eastern Cuba Fri. Looking ahead, a new cold front will come off the NE coast of Florida Fri followed by strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas. The front is forecast to extend from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas offshore waters Sat morning and move east of 60W Sat night. $$ Christensen
