000 AXNT20 KNHC 292248 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Jan 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the central Caribbean will support strong to gale-force winds offshore northwestern Colombia during the nighttime hours from tonight through at least Mon night. Seas will peak at 12 to 14 ft under the strongest winds. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the southern Guinea coast to 09N20W. Further south, an ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 00N28W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 07N between 10W and 17W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front extends from near Galveston Bay to near New Orleans, Louisiana, then continues eastward as a dissipating stationary front to near the Florida Big Bend. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of this boundary. A weak low pressure that was near Tampico, Mexico, has moved farther inland this evening and associated convection has dissipated. Most of the Gulf is dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1023 mb center offshore Tampa Bay. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are seen at the northeastern Gulf. Mainly moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, in the wake of the warm front, fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will develop tonight and Thu, in response to a low that moved into the U.S. Southern Plains. A new, trailing cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu night, reach from near Panama City, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by late Fri, then stall and dissipate from near the Florida Keys to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by late Sat. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will follow that front, locally strong offshore Veracruz. Winds behind the front will diminish Sat night with tranquil conditions expected across the basin Sun into at least Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section on a Gale Warning. A trade-wind regime continues across much of the basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are present at the south- central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft exist at the southwestern, north-central and southeastern basin, including waters near the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas will persist across the central Caribbean, with fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba through early Fri, and in the Gulf of Honduras Thu night through Fri night. Meanwhile, long-period east swell will continue to produce locally rough seas through early next week in the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the Caribbean, with northerly swell arriving this weekend helping to reinforce rough seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N58W to over Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and east of this feature north of 25N between 50W and 58W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Mainly moderate SE to S winds with 7 to 10 ft seas in moderate to large E to SE swell are found north of 20N between 35W and 60W. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells are present north of 20N between 60W and the southern Georgia/Florida coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 03N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft in large NE to E swells are evident. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front is expected to move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into Thu. The front will stall and weaken along roughly 24N into the central Bahamas by early Fri, as high pressure builds off the Carolinas in the wake of the front. The high pressure will shift eastward Fri, allowing fresh to locally strong southerly wind and locally rough seas off northeast Florida and south of 22N into Sat. Large NW swell will follow the front across the waters east of 70W Fri and Sat, while yet another front may move into the NW waters Sat where it will stall and dissipate into Sun. Looking ahead to Mon, high pressure along 30N will support gentle breezes north of 24N, and moderate to fresh E winds and moderate to rough seas in E swell south of 24N, except for locally strong winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage. $$ Konarik
