256
AXNT20 KNHC 301649
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Mar 30 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.
…MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE…
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues south-southwestward to near
02N19W. The ITCZ axis extends from 02N19W to 03S43W along the
coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from the equator-03N between 24W-37W.
…GULF OF AMERICA…
Surface ridging extends north of the Gulf of America today,
causing gentle to moderate return flow SE winds across the Gulf.
Seas are 3-6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is limited to the
extreme NE Gulf between Tampa and Cedar Key, supported by an
upper-level trough. Dense fog was reported within the coastal
waters of Texas and Louisiana.
For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf region early
this week, producing a gentle to moderate return flow and slight
to moderate seas. A weak cold front is forecast to sink across the
NW and N central Gulf late on Mon, and extend from the Florida
Big Bend to central Texas by Tue morning before dissipating. High
pressure will then build westward across the Gulf Tue night
through Thu to support fresh to strong southerly winds across most
of the basin and moderate to rough seas.
…CARIBBEAN SEA…
The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area
and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong trades over
the central and NE Caribbean today, with strong to near gale just
north of Colombia. Trades elsewhere are gentle to moderate. Seas
are 8-10 ft north of Colombia and 3-7 ft elsewhere. No
significant deep convection is occurring today.
For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds
and moderate to rough seas off the coast of Colombia through the
middle of the week. Similar wind speeds are also expected in the
Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Large E swell will continue to impact
the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages most of the
week, building seas 8 to 10 ft. Looking ahead, high pressure will
again build N of the Caribbean Sea toward the middle of the week
to bring a significantly strengthen in the trade wind flow and
building seas across most of the basin.
…ATLANTIC OCEAN…
A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N42W to 26N52W.
While no significant winds are noted with the front, scattered
showers are occurring within 60 NM of the front. A trough in the
E Atlantic extends from a 1010 mb low near 32N21W to 23N28W. Fresh
winds are located north of 28N on both sides of the trough. Seas
are 8-10 ft in NE swell north of 25N between 25W-33W. Elsewhere, a
moderate pressure gradient between a 1029 mb Bermuda High near
33N60W and lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing fresh to strong
trades and seas 7-10 ft south of 27N and west of 35W. Elsewhere
winds are gentle to moderate with seas 5-7 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring just east of Florida, north of 25N and
west of 78W in association with an upper-level trough.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will drift slowly
eastward and weaken some through Mon. As a result, winds and seas
will diminish modestly across the forecast region. However, an
area fresh to strong E winds will persist along the southern
periphery of the ridge, affecting mainly the waters S of 25N and E
of the Windward Passage through early Tue. At that time, a cold
front will move off the SE United States coast and weaken quickly
across the far NW zones by early Wed. High pressure will then
build again across the region Wed night through Thu night,
bringing an increase in winds and seas mainly across the waters S
of 24N.
$$
Landsea