543 AXNT20 KNHC 010532 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Dec 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to near 03N45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring from the Equator to 02N between 14W and 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb surface high is over the southeastern US and is driving moderate to fresh E to NE winds across much of the basin south of 26N, and gentle to moderate E to NE winds across areas north of 26N. Moderate seas are analyzed across much of the basin south of 27N, with slight seas to the north of 27N. For the forecast, high pressure building in over the area will shift eastward through Sun night as a trough develops in the far western Gulf. The resulting pressure gradient will support fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas over the waters W of 90W into early next week. Winds will increase over the remainder of the Gulf going into the middle of next week, then diminish afterwards. CARIBBEAN SEA... Widely scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 20N between 78W and 85W, owing to the presence of a surface trough in the W Caribbean, as well as the eastern extenstion of the East Pacific monsoon trough entering the basin. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across much of the eastern, central, and SW Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong E winds are noted in the south- central Caribbean off the NW coast of Venezuela and Colombia. In the NW Caribbean, NE winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the basin, with highest seas in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the basin through tonight. Winds will strengthen over the NW waters Sun. The fresh to strong winds will then expand in coverage over the majority of the basin going into the middle of next week as strong high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean south of 15N between 77W and 82W are due to persistent low pressure in that portion of the basin. This activity contains frequent lightning and gusty winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N65W to the central Bahamas and into northwest Cuba. A pre-frontal trough is ahead of the front, extending from 20N72W to 30N64W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 24N to 31N between 55W and 65W. Gentle to moderate N winds are north and west of the front, and gentle to moderate SE winds are along northern sections of the front and pre-frontal trough. A pocket of moderate to fresh NE winds is observed off the east coast of Florida from 26N to 29N between 71W and 77W. The remainder of the Atlantic is influenced by 1031 mb high pressure centered SW of the Azores. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the far eastern Atlantic increase to moderate to fresh speeds west of 25W, before diminishing to light to gentle speeds west of 60W. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters, with seas to 8 ft possible within patches of fresh winds. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extending from just east of Bermuda to 26N69W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba near 22N78W will become stationary from near 31N58W to 26N65W and to the Windward Passage by Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will follow the front. A reinforcing cold front will push southward into the NW part of the area Sun night, followed by fresh northwest to north winds. It will then merge with the stationary front early next week. The merged front is expected to reach from near 31N55W to the Windward Passage during the middle of the upcoming week before stalling and weakening from near 28N55W to 24N63W and to near NW Haiti Thu and Thu night. $$ Adams
