Hurricane Tammy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

By | October 21, 2023

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FONT15 KNHC 210841
PWSAT5

HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023               
0900 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

PONCE PR       34  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   4(13)   1(14)   X(14)

AGUADILLA PR   34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   X(13)

SAN JUAN PR    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)

VIEQUES PR     34  2   4( 6)   6(12)   5(17)   5(22)   1(23)   X(23)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

SAINT THOMAS   34  2   5( 7)  16(23)   5(28)   5(33)   2(35)   X(35)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

SAINT JOHN     34  2   7( 9)  19(28)   6(34)   5(39)   1(40)   X(40)
SAINT JOHN     50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
SAINT JOHN     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAINT CROIX    34  2   5( 7)   9(16)   5(21)   3(24)   1(25)   X(25)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  4  70(74)  11(85)   1(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  1  30(31)  22(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X  13(13)  20(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)

SABA           34  5  57(62)   7(69)   2(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)
SABA           50  1  18(19)   9(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
SABA           64  X   9( 9)   7(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

ST EUSTATIUS   34  8  64(72)   4(76)   1(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)
ST EUSTATIUS   50  1  28(29)   5(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
ST EUSTATIUS   64  X  15(15)   6(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 21  59(80)   2(82)   1(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  2  37(39)   3(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X  23(23)   3(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)

BARBUDA        34 56  41(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
BARBUDA        50  5  72(77)   2(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
BARBUDA        64  1  36(37)   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)

ANTIGUA        34 72  26(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
ANTIGUA        50 11  63(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
ANTIGUA        64  1  15(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

GUADELOUPE     34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GUADELOUPE     50 73   7(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
GUADELOUPE     64 48  11(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)

AVES           34  3   4( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)

DOMINICA       34 73   2(75)   X(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
DOMINICA       50  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
DOMINICA       64  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MARTINIQUE     34 26   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)

SAINT LUCIA    34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SAINT VINCENT  34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BARBADOS       34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

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