000 WTNT31 KNHC 200844 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 ...OSCAR MAKES LANDFALL ON GREAT INAGUA ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO REACH GUANTANAMO OR HOLGUIN CUBA AS A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 73.1W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has changed the Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. Tropical storm watches could be required for this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 73.1 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-southwestward or westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar will move across Great Inagua this morning, make landfall along the northeastern coast of Cuba later this afternoon or evening, and then move across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday. Oscar will then accelerate northeastward across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Oscar is forecast to reach the northeastern coast of Cuba as a hurricane later this afternoon. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and moves across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across portions of the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas, particularly Great Inagua Island, through this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba late this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba this afternoon into Monday. Tropical storm conditions will diminish across the Turks and Caicos Islands this morning. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 6 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf . STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas, where water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet above normal tide levels. Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg