Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

By | October 9, 2024

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FONT14 KNHC 090242
PWSAT4

HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142024               
0300 UTC WED OCT 09 2024                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H.                                       

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

KINGS BAY GA   34  X   2( 2)   8(10)   5(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)

WAYCROSS GA    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   2( 2)  13(15)   6(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   2( 2)  13(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   2( 2)  33(35)  15(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

THE VILLAGES   34  X   5( 5)  43(48)   4(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
THE VILLAGES   50  X   1( 1)  11(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
THE VILLAGES   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   5( 5)  63(68)   8(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   1( 1)  28(29)   7(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
ORLANDO FL     64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   6( 6)  69(75)  14(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)  38(38)  21(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)  13(13)  15(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   6( 6)  69(75)  14(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)  38(38)  21(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
PATRICK AFB    64  X   X( X)  13(13)  15(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   7( 7)  62(69)  14(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)  25(25)  20(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   7( 7)  45(52)   9(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   1( 1)   9(10)   6(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

FT LAUDERDALE  34  1   6( 7)  32(39)   6(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)
FT LAUDERDALE  50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
FT LAUDERDALE  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

MIAMI FL       34  1   3( 4)   8(12)   2(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)

HOMESTEAD ARB  34  1   3( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)

MARATHON FL    34  2   9(11)   9(20)   2(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)

KEY WEST FL    34  2  17(19)   5(24)   2(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NAPLES FL      34  2  57(59)  21(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
NAPLES FL      50  X  10(10)  21(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
NAPLES FL      64  X   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

FT MYERS FL    34  1  42(43)  37(80)   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   6( 6)  32(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

VENICE FL      34  2  78(80)  17(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
VENICE FL      50  X  39(39)  48(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
VENICE FL      64  X  11(11)  56(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)

TAMPA FL       34  1  48(49)  42(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
TAMPA FL       50  X   9( 9)  52(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
TAMPA FL       64  X   3( 3)  33(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  1  12(13)  31(44)   2(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ST MARKS FL    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

APALACHICOLA   34  1   4( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  1   8( 9)   5(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ALBANY GA      34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GFMX 290N 870W 34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   3( 3)  18(21)  23(44)   2(46)   X(46)   X(46)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   4(16)   X(16)   X(16)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

HAVANA         34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ISLE OF PINES  34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

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