Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 7

By | October 7, 2024

000
WTNT34 KNHC 070241
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...MILTON STRENGTHENING...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 93.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions
of Florida early Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was 
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 93.1 West.  Milton is 
moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h).  An eastward to 
east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a 
faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday.  On the 
forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and 
Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by 
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and
become a major hurricane on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft observations is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as
Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are
possible beginning Monday afternoon.

SURF:  Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  These swells are expected to spread
northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next
day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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