Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 17

By | October 6, 2024

000
WTNT23 KNHC 061453
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024
1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  37.9W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  37.9W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  37.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.2N  39.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.4N  40.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.6N  42.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.9N  43.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.2N  45.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.4N  47.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.2N  49.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.2N  51.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N  37.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


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